📉 Bankroll & risk-of-ruin simulator

Test your staking plan over thousands of bet sequences (Monte-Carlo) and see the outcome distribution, max drawdown and risk of ruin. Same edge, different stake size → very different results. Everything runs locally. EV/Kelly calculator →

Starting bankroll Number of bets Average odds Your win probability (%) Staking method Kelly fraction Simulations Ruin threshold (% of start)

Edge: 3.0% · EV per bet: 6.0%

Final bankroll (median)1081.08×

Growth (median)8%

Risk of ruin0%≤ 20% of start

Max drawdown (median)12%

p5–p95 range85 – 138

Bankroll paths (p5–p95 / p25–p75 bands · line = median)

Dashed line = starting bankroll. X axis = number of bets.

Illustrative simulation with independent bets at constant odds and probability. Aggressive staking (full Kelly, high %) raises expected growth but also drawdown and risk of ruin. Bet responsibly and set limits.