Experimental
World Cup 2026 — model analysis
A transparent, data-driven model — not a guarantee. We publish every call and grade them all openly.
Featured calls
The model's highest-conviction calls for the day, ranked by conviction — not by value against the bookmaker.
Full World Cup board
Projected groups — World Cup 2026
The 12 official FIFA groups of four, with each team in projected finish order (by model strength) and the top two marked as projected qualifiers. The standings order is projected by strength (computed Elo) — not results.
Projected knockout bracket — World Cup 2026
The official FIFA 2026 knockout bracket, from the round of 32 to the final, with the model's projected qualifiers slotted into their seeds and each tie advanced by model strength (computed Elo).
Power rankings — World Cup 2026
All 48 national teams ranked by our model's strength rating (computed Elo, ~1500–2200). This is estimated team strength — not a result prediction or a value claim.
Winners & losers
Every settled call from the experimental model, with its outcome in the open — win, loss or push. No cherry-picking.
Transparent track record
The experimental model's real record — hits, misses and everything in between. No cherry-picking.
Experimental model. This is our World Cup model in a testing phase (national teams). Probabilities are uncertain and are not a value claim or a profit guarantee.
It is separate from our audited club-football product: see the club model audit →
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