Projected XIs

Predicted lineups with start probability

Every matchday, each team's probable XI (possible lineup) computed by a model (recent lineups, minutes, injuries and suspensions, rotation) with the probability that each player starts. When the confirmed lineup arrives, it is graded in public: hits and misses, team by team.

7.2/11 starters right on average · 44 lineups graded· model expected 9.2

SpainLa LigaMatchday 4 · 9 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 02:15 PM6.5/11 · 6 lineups gradedEnglandPremier LeagueMatchday 3 · 9 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 01:00 PM7.1/11 · 14 lineups gradedItalySerie AMatchday 3 · 9 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 01:00 PM8.0/11 · 2 lineups gradedGermanyBundesligaMatchday 2 · 8 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 01:30 PM7.5/11 · 12 lineups gradedFranceLigue 1Matchday 3 · 6 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 01:00 PM6.5/11 · 2 lineups gradedPortugalPrimeira LigaMatchday 5 · 8 matchesNext: Sun, Sep 6, 02:30 PM7.3/11 · 8 lineups graded

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Today's lineups, every morning on Telegram

One message a day with the probable lineups for today's matches, the doubts and the absences, and the public grading against the confirmed XI.

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Frequently asked questions

How is the start probability computed?

It combines the team's recent confirmed lineups (most recent weighted highest), minutes played this season, the average rating, and rules out injured and suspended players. The formation is the team's most common recent one. It is a model, not dressing-room information.

When are the projected lineups updated?

Every morning and at noon for fixtures in the next four days. The version published at least three hours before kickoff is frozen and is the one graded against the confirmed lineup, which arrives about an hour before the start.

What does a lineup's accuracy mean?

Of the eleven projected starters, how many were in the confirmed lineup. It is published team by team and matchday by matchday, misses included, next to what the model expected to get right.