⚽ Score & fair-lines calculator
Enter each team's expected goals (xG). The Poisson / Dixon-Coles model computes the scoreline matrix and fair odds for every market. Everything runs locally — nothing is sent to any server. Odds, EV & Kelly calculator →
1X2 & Both teams to score — fair odds
Home2.2843.8%
Draw3.8226.2%
Away3.3330%
BTTS Yes1.8354.7%
BTTS No2.2145.3%
Scoreline matrix
L \ V012345
0 7.1 7.7 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.1
1 9.7 12.5 7.3 2.9 0.9 0.2
2 7.6 9.1 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 3.8 4.5 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.4 1.7 1 0.4 0.1 0
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0 0
Rows = Home goals · Columns = Away goals · values in %
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–27.3%
Over / Under — fair odds
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.08 93% | 14.12 7% |
| 1.5 | 1.32 75% | 4.08 25% |
| 2.5 | 1.97 51% | 2.03 49% |
| 3.5 | 3.50 29% | 1.40 71% |
| 4.5 | 7.30 14% | 1.16 86% |
Asian handicap — fair odds (whole-line pushes = stake returned)
| Handicap (Home) | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4.58 22% | 1.28 78% |
| -1 | 3.58 28% | 1.39 72% |
| -0.5 | 2.28 44% | 1.78 56% |
| 0 | 1.69 59% | 2.46 41% |
| +0.5 | 1.43 70% | 3.33 30% |
| +1 | 1.18 85% | 6.59 15% |
| +1.5 | 1.14 87% | 7.99 13% |
"Fair" odds = no bookmaker margin. Compare them with the price you're offered: if the book's is higher, there's value. The model assumes Poisson independence with a Dixon-Coles correction; xG is your input estimate.